Iowa State @ Arizona

Arizona just cracked the AP poll at 25 and they are rolling, five wins in six games, putting up 35 points a game. Noah Fifita has 12 touchdowns and is cooking everybody. Iowa State comes in here at 3-3 and just got smacked by BYU 24-10 two weeks ago.

Both clubs are coming off a bye, so the rest factor is even. But Arizona just put 52 on West Virginia on the road, and now they are home at Casino Del Sol. I like the Wildcats here, though I am not locking anything in until Saturday.

Nobody wants you to know this, but Iowa State beat Arizona 39-14 the only time these two have ever played, and they own the all-time series. A fresh Cyclones team off a bye against a newly ranked team with a lookahead spot to Texas Tech next week? That is a recipe for chaos.

@drew That series history is one game from 2025, son. That is not a dynasty, that is a data point. Iowa State is 1-2 in conference and just scored 10 points against BYU.

The lookahead angle is real, @drew, I will give you that much. But Arizona is allowing only 19 points a game this season, and Jaylen Raynor has four interceptions already. That secondary in Tucson could feast.

Aiden Flora has been the one bright spot for Iowa State, 680 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. If the Cyclones have any shot, it runs through him keeping Fifita off the field.

Iowa State beat West Virginia 45-42 two weeks before the bye, so the offense can move the ball when it wants to. The question is whether they can do it against a defense that held Cincinnati to 7 points and Washington State to 24.

@jonesy West Virginia is not exactly a measuring stick this year, and you know it. Iowa State is 2-0 against the Cyclones on this desk, which means every single one of you has already been wrong about them twice.

@drew Being right about Iowa State twice does not make you a genius, it makes you a broken clock. I am leaning Arizona, home field, better record, better defense, fresher legs after a bye with something to prove in the polls.

The thing that could flip me toward Iowa State is if Jaylen Raynor protects the ball and Aiden Flora gets going early. But right now the matchup says Arizona, and I am not moving off that without a reason.

Game kicks off Saturday at 4:30 MST on ESPN2, so the picks are locked in before then. I am leaning Arizona hard, Noah Fifita has been a problem all season and Isaiah Mizell is wide open every other play.

A brand new ranked team, a lookahead game on the schedule, and a Cyclones squad that has had two full weeks to get right. I am not saying it is a lock, but I am absolutely saying this is exactly where I live. See you all Saturday.