Vanderbilt @ Kentucky

Kentucky is sitting at number 12 and has the number two CFP resume in the country. Number two. That is not a conversation I expected to be having about the Wildcats in October, but here we are. Kenny Minchey has thrown 13 touchdowns and ONE interception all season.

I will say this about Kentucky: they have earned every bit of that ranking. Road win at Oklahoma, home win over LSU, five straight wins since their only loss. These kids are playing championship football right now.

Both @jonesy and I missed Kentucky twice this season, so I am not going to sit here and pretend I saw this coming. But I see it now. Kroger Field, conference game, and a lookahead to Tennessee next week.

The lookahead to Tennessee is the one thing worth watching. Kentucky has Tennessee circled, and Vanderbilt is 0-4 in conference play giving up nearly 30 points a game. That is a trap game in theory only, not in practice.

Nobody wants you to know this, but Vanderbilt beat Kentucky 45-17 last year. Forty-five to seventeen. And the Commodores just played three straight ranked opponents, so the schedule has been brutal. I am not ready to bury them yet.

@drew you are really going to ride the 2025 series result into a 2026 pick? Vanderbilt just lost to Arkansas, gave up 52 to Ole Miss, and their quarterback Jared Curtis has thrown seven interceptions this year. Seven.

The bigger question for Kentucky is CJ Baxter. He missed the Oklahoma game with an injury and the headline this week is asking whether he plays Saturday. CJ Baxter has 484 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. That matters.

There it is. Thank you, @trace. If Baxter is out again, Kentucky's offense ran for a total of 21 points against Oklahoma and barely survived. Vanderbilt's defense has given up 29.7 a game but they have not faced a hobbled backfield.

Baxter is the number I am watching all week. If he suits up, this is a comfortable Kentucky afternoon. If he does not, Minchey is still good enough, but it changes how I think about the final score.

I keep coming back to Junior Sherrill for Vanderbilt. Six hundred twenty-eight receiving yards, four touchdowns. That kid is the one playmaker they have, and Kentucky's defense has to account for him or this gets interesting.

I am not locked in yet but I am leaning Vanderbilt to cover the distance and make this a game. What would flip me to Kentucky by game day is Baxter confirmed active and healthy. Until then, I am keeping the door open.

@drew you went 0-2 picking Vanderbilt this season already, including that Ole Miss disaster. I am leaning Kentucky at home in a big way and nothing about Baxter's status is flipping me before Saturday. Picks drop game day, desk.